Fed policy reset and macro rate risks

Kevin Warsh sworn in as hawkish Fed Chair. 10y yields near 5%; 52%+ hike odds. US launches 'defensive strikes' on Iran, oil climbs back from 7% plunge on peace deal hopes. S&P 500 hits new record. Warsh faces pressure to adjust rate stance. BlackRock hints at possible cut. Consumer confidence data due Tuesday, core PCE Thursday. Russia hypersonic war escalation adds risk. Latest: Iran peace prospects drive oil down 3%, Nasdaq surges on Micron milestone; 'Hormuz Hangover' warning persists; Fed rate hike odds remain elevated. Danske Bank notes risk-on momentum as bond yields retreat. Market rally continues with AI and IPO catalysts. Larry Williams predicts next bullish wave starting. Equity risk premium near zero adds caution.