US Market Flash

• Wells Fargo cut its S&P 500 year-end target to 7,700 from 7,950, citing limited catalysts, political risks, and late-cycle dynamics
• Oil-driven...

Liquidity deterioration is accelerating despite Treasury paydowns, with the high-yield advance-decline line at 52-week lows and McClellan Summation...

Pre-release forecasts centered on whether core CPI would round to 0.2% (favoring a Fed hold) or 0.3% (favoring a hike), with Goldman, JPMorgan and...

• Oil shock pressures stocks: U.S. oil futures topped $100 and Brent exceeded $105 amid the seventh month of U.S.-Iran conflict, sending major...

Barclays raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 7,950 from 7,800 after tech-led earnings outperformance.

• What happened: 86% of reporting S&P 500...

Oil shock spreads fast. Brent crude broke above $100 for the first time since July amid U.S.-Iran clashes, pushing U.S. crude above $95. Asian shares...

Fresh Middle East hostilities pushed oil to its highest since late July, injecting inflation and rate risks into equities ahead of this week's data. Markets opened mixed Tuesday, with the Dow falling 0.57% while Nasdaq ticked up 0.08%.

Will resilient jobs data back risk assets or force markets to reprice higher rates and pressure historically tight credit spreads?

• Jobs strength:...

August nonfarm payrolls surged 162,000—well above the 56,000 consensus—while unemployment held at 4.1% and manufacturing added 16,000 jobs.

• Rate...

US oil inventories are nearing multi-year lows even without SPR releases, while rig counts keep climbing and speculative positioning rebounds from...

With a strong jobs report removing labor-market excuses and Governor Waller flagging the upcoming CPI as decisive for September action, a...

S&P 500 fell 0.38% and Nasdaq 0.29% as robust August nonfarm payrolls boosted hawkish Fed expectations. Traders now face higher rate odds, pressuring index ETFs like $SPY and $QQQ while supporting yields.

With 21-day realized volatility at 7.4%—equating to daily S&P 500 moves of roughly 46 bps—any sustained expansion beyond that range would push...

U.S. indexes closed higher Wednesday as Treasury yields stabilized after hitting multi-year highs, turning a contained risk-on session into...

Dell boosted its full-year sales forecast by $25 billion from the May target of $167 billion, topping analysts' average estimate of $173.8 billion and pointing to stronger-than-expected demand.

• Tanker strikes: Saudi and Korean supertankers hit in Strait of Hormuz, followed by fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian targets.
• Oil surge: Brent jumped...

Crude oil surged 3% to $88.37 while the ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6 in August, missing estimates and signaling slower growth. This combo...

US JOLTS job openings are forecast to ease modestly to 7.3 million in July from 7.359 million, signaling a steady labor market. Traders have lifted...

U.S. futures point to a lower open Monday as investors weigh Iran escalation, Canada trade tensions, and key jobs data.

• Geopolitics: U.S. strikes...

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh flagged that underlying inflation trends have not meaningfully improved, lifting CME FedWatch odds of a 25bp September hike to...