Geopolitical Risk: Hormuz Deal Collapses, Trump Threat Escalates

The MOU on Hormuz expired without a deal. Trump then threatened to make Hormuz a US territory, escalating tensions. Now Trump has rejected the MoU extension and claims total control of Hormuz. Oil prices spiked (Murban +7%), energy sector (XLE) and defense stocks in focus. No resolution in sight; 4-9M bpd at risk. The oil surge is also fueling inflation fears and pushing Treasury yields higher.