Brazil Market Pulse

Boletim Focus (March 27) delivers a stark warning: inflation remains more persistent than expected, with resistant inflation and weak growth reigniting market concerns.

• Futures rise: Asian, European bags and US futures up on fim do conflito hopes
• Ibovespa surges: Strong gains mais uma vez, extending rebound
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Inflation Forecast and Data

• 🔥 IPCA Forecast Raised: Market financial forecast for IPCA inflation raised from 4.17% to 4.31% this year.
• Recent...

Key highlights from 31/3/26 IBOV session analysis:

• Natura (NATU3) surged +12.99%, topping Ibovespa standouts.
• PRIO (PRIO3) plunged -8.17%.
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• Spot indicators up: IPCA-15 at +0.44% in Mar/26, INPC +0.56% in Feb/26, IGP-M +0.52%
• Annual forecast revised: Market lifts IPCA projection to...

• Selective phase ahead: Brazilian stocks enter selectivity after foreign capital rally, facing global uncertainties and Selic cut pace questions.
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• PSD choice: Names Goiás Gov. Ronaldo Caiado as pre-candidate for presidency.
• Background: Follows Ratinho Jr. (PSD) withdrawal; Eduardo Leite...

Key hurdles for Brazil's e-commerce sector:

• Talks overtime due to US-Brazil debate on e-commerce moratorium and agriculture.
• Brazil demands ag...

Fixed income volatility surges: Prefixado rates spike sharply.

• Banks buy heavily into Tesouro Selic, with some titles selling out in the auction.
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Market Highlights

• 🔥 IBOV Reaches 185,500 Points: Ibovespa rose 1.60% to 185,500 points near historical high amid falling global rates, rising...

Full-day Ibovespa surge on Mar 25 amid ME de-escalation signals:

• Morning relief: Global yields fall post-Lagarde, IBOV rises as USD/BRL hits...

Middle East oil surge delivers positive impact on Brazil's current account.

• Gov't measure: R$3bn diesel subsidy evaluated to counter price hikes
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• Equity surge: Ibovespa jumps over 3% on Trump signals of Iran conflict de-escalation, boosting global risk sentiment.
• Rate pressures: Geopolitical...

Monetary Policy Shifts

• 🔥 Economists Raise 2026 Inflation Forecast: Market economists elevated the inflation projection and predict smaller...

Geopolitical tensions spike fuel prices, pressuring Brazil's inflation directly and indirectly.

• Global CBs pause easing amid uncertainty; Copom...

• New Finance Minister Durigan delays crypto IOF consultation to avoid Congress conflict during election year
• Proposal targeted stablecoins as FX...

Timeline of key shifts:

• Copom cuts Selic from 15% to 14.75% last week, signaling expansionist policy.
• This stimulates consumption, investments,...

China drops zero-tolerance on weeds in Brazilian soybean shipments, easing trade frictions after Beijing complaints. Major win for exporters and BRL strength amid key China demand.

Finance Ministry Crypto Tax Suspension

• 🔥 Minister Kills Consultation: Brazil’s Finance Minister Paola Rocha killed a crypto tax consultation on...

Election-driven pivot: Durigan/Rocha suspends crypto tax consultation to prioritize votes and stability ahead of 2026 polls.

• Crypto sector breather:...