Brazil Market Pulse

• GDP growth: 2.3% in 2025, official data confirms
• Slowest pace: Since COVID pandemic in 2020
• Policy drag: High interest rates squeezed consumption; tight monetary policy weighs
  Deceleration highlights rate impact – pivot potential in play for markets.

• Export price hits $540/ton FOB in Feb, 8-month high
• CBAM boosts competitiveness in EU with low carbon costs <€30/t, spurring purchases
• Jan...

• AgRural slashes 2025-26 output to 178MMT from 181MMT, citing drought losses partially offset elsewhere
• StoneX predicts 177.8MMT, down 2.1%, still a record crop despite irregular rains in RS
• 39% harvested so far; RS harvest lags, more revisions likely

• Election stakes: October vote hinges on crime and economy; Lula bets on performance for re-election
• Solid macros: ~3% annual growth for 3 years...

Oi-V.tal battle escalates: Oi pushes cash auction for its 27.2% V.tal stake (min $2.4B) on March 5, but PIMCO-led creditors seek debt cancellation to...

Energy sector fixed-income boost amid green trend:

• BRL2bn ($390M) green infrastructure debentures maturing 2038, priced at 1.15% below...

CGU's new framework boosts M&A predictability in Brazil:

• Acquirers disclosing subsidiary misconduct within 12 months post-close get up to 2/3...

Geopolitical tensions in Iran drive multi-market shocks in Brazil:

• Ibovespa: Slips 1% to 187,200 on Monday from global equity rout; tumbles Tuesday...

Trend alert: Global inflows accelerating into Brazil equities on macro tailwinds and 15% Selic draw.

• IBOV up 24% YTD, outpacing EM by 16pp amid...

Brazil's Aegea is raising US$170mn via bond issue to fund operations expansion with new contracts; board approval signals strong utilities sector infrastructure push.

Key barriers to Brazil's monetary easing for fixed income and FX traders:

• Inflation resilience: Annual rate slowed less than expected in early...

Confaz issued a regulation defining entities responsible for issuing NFGas starting July, as part of February's federal indirect tax developments. This tweak streamlines fiscal processes, potentially easing business compliance costs.

USD/BRL at 5.2455 (+0.27%) at 7:39 AM EST, volume 4,230.

• Open 5.2473, prev close 5.2312.
• Day high 5.2603, low 5.2325 – range signals volatility for traders.
• 5-day gain +2.15%, but YTD -4.19%.

Brazil's 10-year government bond yield fell to 13.57% on 2026-03-04, down 0.10% from 13.67%. This daily fixed-income benchmark signals a mildly easing rate environment for sovereign debt traders.

Brazil targets over $48B in sustainable investments across Lula's four-year term, a bold fiscal commitment to green initiatives with major infrastructure spending potential.

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