Global Investment Outlook

Inflation and Macro Data

• 🔥 Hot PPI Print: February PPI rose +0.7% m/m versus +0.3% estimate and +0.5% prior, with core +0.5% m/m versus +0.3%...

LizAnnSonders charts sectors’ percentage of stocks trading at various period highs – key for long-term investors to gauge market breadth and rotations amid higher yields.

Fading housing trend amid rate pressures:

• Mortgage applications -10.9% WoW vs. +3.2% prior—first drop in 5 weeks, largest since September
• Pending...

AI funding surges, but is it building durable franchises or just hype?

• 27 new unicorns born in February alone across AI and robotics
• Microsoft...

February's PPI surprise highlights sticky producer inflation:

• PPI +0.7% MoM vs +0.3% est (prior +0.5%), core +0.5% vs +0.3% est (prior +0.8%)
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• Treasuries fail as safe haven: Strait disruptions spike oil toward $100, fueling inflation that lifts yields and sinks bonds with stocks.
• Fed...

Key flaws in Fed's PCE gauge distort policy:

• Shelter costs 2 years delayed vs market rents.
• Imputed financial services add 0.5% phantom...

Americans recognize AI as a 'wealth inequality machine', per polls. For long-term investors, this signals social risks from AI concentration, potentially sparking regulatory backlash or market instability.

NY Fed Services Sector PMI ticked up slightly in March but remained in contraction and hasn’t broken the downtrend over the past couple years.

• Mega scale: $110 billion round, largest-ever private tech funding
• Tech trio: Nvidia ($30 billion), Amazon, SoftBank backers
• Valuation jump: $730 billion pre-money for ChatGPT maker

• Joe Kent resigns: Top US counterterrorism official's letter is first public opposition to Iran war
• Emerging dissent: Major show of division within...

RBA raises cash rate from 3.85% to 4.1%, driven by persistent inflation and global pressures.

Key implications for investors:

• Reduced borrowing...

• GDP outlook slashed as Iran war adds headwind to resilient US economy
• Exacerbated by February's weak jobs, growth revisions down
• US oil/gas...

RBA Rate Hike

• 🔥 Reserve Bank of Australia raises rates: The RBA increased interest rates by 0.25% to 4.1%.
• Market reaction: Market implies...

• Modest closes on March 17: Dow +0.1% to 46,993, Nasdaq +0.47% to 22,479, S&P +0.25%
• Middle East tensions drove oil volatility
• Oil rebound limited gains in stocks

Long-term investors: Track oil shocks for market pressure points.

• Rate rise confirmed: RBA lifts cash rate to 4.1%, amid ongoing inflation fight.
• Market shrugs: Traders disappointed—no AUD jump or bond yield...

• Massive refinancing risk: $12.4T in US Treasuries due, with foreign buyers pulling back and central banks favoring gold.
• Unexpected Treasury...

Key deals signal AI hype, but durability shines through:

• Legora's $550M Series D at $5.55B valuation – third round in a year, top VCs join...

Energy surge and shifting demand amplify inflation risks and yields:

• WTI crude +4% to $97 on supply concerns, lifting energy stocks and inflation...

Despite AI challenges in a market selloff, Intuit and Salesforce stocks climbed 2.2% on favorable buyback news – a potential stabilizer for long-term tech exposure beyond the hype.