Dalio Macro Monitor

The Fed's July 10 semiannual report confirms sticky inflation with PCE at 4.1% and core at 3.4%, attributing the rise to tariffs, energy shocks...

Hyperscaler debt issuance continues growing, pushing IG spreads wider and lifting fixed-income supply while CDS spreads widen and the forward-trailing...

Can the Fed credibly hit 2% when AI alone adds 50bp to US core PCE?

• Fed stance: Warsh will reaffirm the 2% target but refuses forward guidance...

Five AI hyperscalers added $350 billion in debt over five years to fund a $725 billion spending surge.

• Combined interest expense doubled to over...

The IMF published its July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update, though extractable quantitative details on growth, inflation, or policy implications are not present in the source text.

Monetary Policy Releases

• July 2026 Monetary Policy Report: Central bank report outlines strategy for maximum employment and stable prices across...

• Hard currency spreads tightened sharply in Q2 on renewed risk appetite after US-Iran de-escalation, then reversed late-quarter.
• Global liquidity...

• Current 4.56% 10Y yield sits in Normal VIX, Flat curve, Tight HY OAS and Neutral dollar regimes
• These buckets show +6.3% to +31.8% 1Y average yield moves historically
• Realized 30-day vol at 15.41% ranks in the 9.8th percentile

By enabling simultaneous execution of cash Treasury and futures spreads through a single transaction, Treasury Link removes legging risk for basis...

Warsh's 15-member task force draws heavily on foreign central bankers and Obama appointees, earning early praise as an "A-list" independent group for...

• Monthly borrowing now averages $155 billion, pushing the FY 2026 deficit past $1.4 trillion in just nine months.
• Interest costs reached $857...

Monetary Policy Framework Changes

• 🔥 Fed Task Forces Launched: Fed Chair Warsh appointed external leads including Mervyn King, Marc Andreessen,...

• Diverse leadership roster: Marc Andreessen, Mervyn King, Raghuram Rajan, and Nobel laureate Thomas Sargent head five task forces covering...

Warsh's five independent task forces, led by outsiders including Andreessen and McMillon, target core monetary operations with recommendations due by...

Multiple data points confirm structural macro stress as cheap-debt era ends.

• Gold decouples from real yields with a de-dollarization premium as...

• Supply shocks replace demand: In a fragmented world, geopolitics now drives inflation via tariffs, sanctions and energy conflicts more than...

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's five external task forces, led by figures including Andreessen, Sharma, Mankiw, Rajan, and Stein, will deliver recommendations...

Roberto Perli confirmed reserve management purchases have no preset path and can be adjusted up or down monthly based on money-market conditions,...

Yield curve bear flatteners and equity style rotations reveal where the economy sits in its cycle but offer no timing on when it ends, making simplistic recession forecasts unreliable. A more sophisticated framework is required.

• Warsh launches independent task forces on balance sheet management and inflation
• $8T sheet persists with Core PCE at 90.9th percentile and M2 at...