Dalio Macro Monitor

• Canada's counter-tariffs on $27.6B of U.S. goods place the burden mainly on domestic importers and consumers, not U.S. exporters.
• Evidence shows...

Rising global oil prices are projected to keep headline PCE inflation steady at 3.7% in August, offsetting gradual moderation elsewhere.

• Core PCE...

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent links the dollar's reserve-currency role to institutional credibility and policy certainties in regulation, taxes,...

Descartes Datamyne's bill-of-lading analysis reveals measurable trade effects after April 2025 reciprocal tariffs.

• Total U.S. imports fell 4.5...

Currency liberalization across Nigeria, Egypt, and Ethiopia has elevated treasury efficiency to a primary investment driver for multinationals.
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The bond market sell-off reflects persistent inflation pressure, with the 10-year Treasury yield briefly hitting its highest level since 2007 after...

Foreign investors are now buying more US stocks than government bonds as America's fast-growing debt pile undermines the risk-free status of...

Korean banks face intensifying funding pressure as low-cost deposits erode while a record volume of bonds matures.

• Demand deposits fell 81 trillion...

RBI net liquidity absorption reached Rs 1,040,790.89 crore on September 14, with daily operations alone at Rs 241,807 crore. This large-scale drain is...

Total social financing hit just 1.66 trillion yuan in August versus 2.1 trillion expected, as bank lending collapsed to 60 billion yuan. Government...

Post-GFC debt accumulation has driven annual net interest expense on U.S. Treasurys above $1 trillion, keeping markets and the economy in a delicate balance even as they broaden.

US 3-month bills sold at 3.970% high rate with 2.64x bid-to-cover; 6-month matched the rate at 2.74x coverage.

• Flat front-end curve at identical...

The Fed's $6.73T balance sheet equals its liabilities, but headline assets diverge from usable market liquidity once TGA and RRP are stripped out.

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The 10-year Treasury yield's breach above 5% for the first time in nearly three years marks a potential duration-regime signal, driven primarily by...

• August gold ETF inflows reached $18 billion with holdings hitting a record 4,189 tonnes, driven by North American ($7.7B), European ($7.9B), and...

Japan's elevated public debt has not triggered the fiscal strain many expect, because a balance-sheet perspective shows how the country sustains such high levels without immediate stress.

Core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month in August, beating the 0.2% consensus and lifting the probability of a 25-basis-point FOMC rate hike on September...

AI could lift productivity while widening inequality and displacing jobs, with direct implications for already high federal debt relative to income.
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Ray Dalio flags an inflection point in U.S. debt dynamics, with his timeline centered on three years give or take two.

Key measurable indicators from...

Moody’s watch on Binghatti revives the exact mechanism applied to Emaar and Nakheel in 2009, but the two prior cases produced sharply different...