Dalio Macro Monitor

A widening Middle East war is layering energy-driven inflation atop record public debt above 100% of GDP by 2030, tightening financial conditions and...

Reduced Fed urgency after weak September payrolls (29K jobs, 4.2% unemployment) has stalled the dollar rally, with 2-year yields dropping 17bp to...

Sri Lanka’s central bank is defending its 5% inflation target through October 2029 as the optimal balance for growth potential, rejecting a 2% anchor...

The 10-year yield closed at 5.29% on September 30, 2026, yet the curve continues to signal holding short-duration Treasury bills.

Assets that bolster individual bank liquidity can flip into system-wide vulnerabilities once widely adopted across institutions.

Only four of 19...

Euro-area excess reserves have halved to €2 trillion from over €4.5 trillion four years ago, pushing repo rates to their highest levels since March...

New research delivers the first evidence on countercyclical capital buffer activation in an emerging market with extreme household leverage, jointly evaluating four credit-risk dimensions.

Debt distress has reached levels unseen since the Great Recession while high earners' net worth surged.

• Families behind on loan payments jumped to...

High-premium states in Turkish gold certificates arise from retail demand clashing with conversion limits, not risk spikes, coinciding with rising...

Bond-market stress indicators are rising even as the latest 10-year auction cleared with record foreign demand.

• Stress signs: Payer skew hit 132...

New York Fed analysis of 67 consumer-goods categories shows tariffs raised prices 2.9 percentage points above the no-tariff baseline by February, with...

Monthly GDP contracted 0.2% in August after rising 0.9% in July, pointing to a possible slowdown in growth momentum. A lone monthly reading should not be overinterpreted as a definitive regime shift.

The European Commission is granting Italy an exemption to exceed normal EU debt limits, allowing up to 0.6% of GDP in additional spending on energy...

Record non-dealer demand at the 10-year auction drove Treasuries higher even as Brent crude topped $102, showing how concentrated buyer interest can temporarily relieve duration pressure despite heavy supply and energy-driven inflation risks.

• Bond vigilantes drive 10-year yields to 5.284% and 30-year to 5.669% via $32.4T debt refinancing pressure.
• Bear steepener (+53.7 bps 2s10s spread,...

A brisk $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction reversed an intraday selloff, with yields falling from 5.364% highs to 5.284% as bid-to-cover hit 2.77...

• Oil topping $102 on Hormuz strikes adds fresh inflation pressure and erodes the case for buying Treasuries
• Term premium for 30-year bonds sits at...

Despite the recent bond-market selloff, the median forecast from nearly 60 strategists polled October 5-7 calls for the benchmark U.S. Treasury yield to ease 30 basis points to 5.00% by year-end.

Major tech firms are increasingly turning to bank loans and bond issuances to fund AI and cloud buildouts rather than relying solely on cash...

The 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.85%, its highest since January 2025, with other Treasury yields reported at 4.92% and 5.24% respectively.