Dalio Macro Monitor

• Pre-war momentum lost: Global economy showed strongest recovery since Covid; now IMF set to downgrade outlook at spring meetings.
• Stagflationary...

• CPI surge: 0.865% MoM in March, 3.3% YoY, driven by gasoline prices post-US-Iran war
• Multi-wave spread: From fuel to transport, food,...

White House confidence surges for Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair in May, with hearings next week.

• Hawkish stance: Emphasizes inflation control and balance...

IMF/World Bank Forecasts Amid Middle East War

• 🔥 Top finance officials convene in Washington under the shadow of the Middle East war, which has...

Third major global shock after COVID/Ukraine hits amid record debt:

• EMDE growth cut to 3.65% in 2026 (from 4%), as low as 2.6% if prolonged
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Central bank balance sheets increased significantly since the global financial crisis through large-scale asset purchase programs, complicating strategies for countering future recessions in advanced economies.

Fed economists warn high stablecoin adoption could trigger $65B-$1.26T central bank balance sheet impacts – a critical liquidity regime signal from their late 2025 study.

Short-term asset prices hinge on Middle East clarity, with Strait of Hormuz shut and supply chains compromised.

• Dollar reserves now below gold for...

Steeper yield curve risks arise from macro channels influencing long-term yields, including price level shocks and perceptions of central bank independence.

Inflation Surges

• 🔥 US CPI Hits 3.3%: US consumer prices climbed 3.3% YoY in March, highest in nearly two years, driven by gas prices rising...

Key macro signals from March CPI:

• CPI accelerates to 3.3% YoY from 2.4%, highest since 2022 Ukraine shock
• Gas prices rocket 21.2% MoM (record...

Key macro vulnerability: U.S. banks' $300B exposure to private credit funds via revolving lines ($95B in 2024) hides NBFI liquidity threats.

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Key macro signals highlight structural strain on U.S. fiscal position and dollar:

• Deficits projected at $22T over next decade
• Debt exceeds $39T...

Key Fed findings on tariff pass-through:

• Tariffs through Nov 2025 explain the full increase in core goods inflation vs. historical norms and added...

Geopolitical energy shock drives headline CPI to 3.3% YoY from 2.4%, with monthly +0.9%—largest since 2022—amid 20% gas price jump.

Core CPI edges to...

UK bond yields rose ~4 basis points across the curve, with the 10-year just under 4.80%—reviving March's 5.12% volatility peak and rattling once-popular trades.

Key Q4 metrics amid policy shocks:

• Growth at 0.5% annualized, missing 0.7% forecast; revised down from 1.4% initial.
• Driven by consumer...

• Second Trump shock: War on Iran triggers initial inflation and further energy pressures, forcing central banks toward tightening.
• Policy reversal:...

Ray Dalio's Big Cycle Warnings

• 🔥 World in Multi-Front Global War: Ray Dalio states the world is already in a multi-front global war, pointing...

Structural vulnerability: Private debt exploded to $2.15T globally (4x in a decade); Fed's bank-focused tools can't restructure distressed non-bank...