Dalio Macro Monitor

No significant updates today.

Ray Dalio now flags a two-year window for compounding debt, tech, and conflict risks, aligning with academic warnings of fiscal crisis from...

Kevin Warsh's Fed chairmanship points to a regime shift in inflation measurement, less frequent communication, and eventual balance sheet reduction....

Rising 30-year Treasury yields above 5% spark debate between healthy adjustment and hidden systemic risks.

• Recalibration view: Yields reflect...

Model projections flag stagflation risks as tariff shocks hit production networks, prices, output, and consumption simultaneously, complicating...

Global bond markets are ending the era of cost-free fiscal stimulus as supply pressures and inflation risks drive yields higher.

• 30-year U.S....

Real Yields Driving Inflation-Less Tightening

• 🔥 Goldman Sachs Analysis: Global bond markets face an inflation-less tightening as U.S. 10-year...

Goldman Sachs flags an inflation-less tightening regime where real yields—not inflation expectations—drive bond selloffs across the US, Europe, and...

The 5s30s Treasury spread has narrowed to 81 basis points—its tightest level in a year—as traders increase bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

Accelerated Treasury issuance of $671 billion through September is draining liquidity via T-bills, with SOFR already rising toward 3.60% as excess...

The IMF's WP/26/94 presents an updated Systemic Banking Crises Database spanning 1970-2025, delivering essential historical context for assessing macro risks as liquidity conditions evolve.

Wall Street sees structurally higher U.S. Treasury yields persisting even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, as the recent surge stems from rising real...

US Treasury Yields and Fiscal Pressures

• 🔥 Treasury Rout Tests Borrowing Tolerance: Reuters reports the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.69% is...

Bond yields above 4.5% on the 10-year note, up more than 50bp since the Iran war began, are forcing the administration to weigh de-escalation and...

Tariff revenues delivered a $130 billion windfall that accounted for nearly all of the $94 billion deficit improvement in the first seven months of...

Greek sovereign CDS spreads display pronounced convexity once bond yields cross regime-specific credibility thresholds, shifting from proportional...

TIPS breakeven rates show the bond market's long track record of lowballing future CPI.

• Current 10-year breakeven prices in just 2.4% average...

Rising 30-year Treasury yields at 5.18% are tightening financial conditions and raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding Bitcoin,...

Kevin Warsh cannot unilaterally shrink the Fed's $6.7T balance sheet; FOMC agreement is required and the post-GFC architecture likely demands a...

Treasury Auction and Yield Signals

• 🔥 30-Year Auction at 5%: Treasury auctioned $25B 30-year bonds at 5.046% for the first time since 2007, with...