Fed Policy and Inflation Data

The August payroll surprise of 162,000 jobs and 4.1% unemployment has revived September rate-hike expectations, with probability estimates near 58% and the 10-year yield near 4.8%. Downward revisions to openings, hires, quits, and layoffs complicate the hawkish interpretation, making CPI, PPI, wages, and further labor data critical tests for Nasdaq valuations and broader risk appetite.