US-Iran Direct Fire, Gulf Infrastructure and Fragile De-escalation

No verified US-Iran agreement has emerged despite continuing contacts; distrust, incompatible timelines, the disputed June MOU, and unresolved nuclear and sanctions-relief issues remain barriers. Reported Ansarallah attacks on Saudi airports add to threats against Gulf infrastructure, while Hormuz disruption, tanker attacks, refining damage, insurance and logistics costs, and a Saudi-backed Yemeni push against the Houthis sustain an energy and inflation shock. Iran faces near-90% reported inflation, a collapsing rial, food-price pressure, official infighting, and alleged AI-enabled influence operations.