US Macro Policy Watch

US data reveal persistent inflation pressures alongside decelerating growth, raising stagflation risks and delaying Fed easing.

• PCE gauge hit 3.8%...

• 30-year Treasury yields broke above 5% for the first time since 2007, triggering fresh bond-market alarm bells.
• MUFG's George Goncalves calls this...

The Federal Reserve will launch its scheduled public review of the monetary policy framework later this year.

Federal debt held by the public now exceeds the full size of the U.S. economy — an unprecedented level in peacetime. The article argues policymakers should adopt at least a 3% deficit target to restore fiscal discipline.

Inflation Data and Treasury Pressures

• 🔥 PCE Inflation: April PCE rose 3.8% YoY and core PCE 3.3%, both matching expectations and at highest...

U.S. consumer confidence declined slightly this month as gas prices stayed high around $4.50 and inflation remained elevated, a sharp contrast to soaring stock prices that highlights potential weakness in household sentiment amid resilient markets.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh all-time highs Thursday after monthly PCE rose just 0.4% versus the 0.5% expected.

• 10-year yield fell to 4.45%...

• PCE inflation rose 0.4% in April to 3.8% annual rate, with core at 3.3%, both highest since 2023 and in line with estimates.
• GDP came in at 1.6%, missing the 2% expectation.
• Stock futures mixed as oil rebounds following U.S. strikes on Iran.

Gold trades near its two-month low of $4,366.56 after dropping 1.43%, pressured by higher oil prices and US inflation that has curbed rate-cut...

Inflation-linked bonds can insulate portfolios from losses as inflation rises due to the Iran war.

• $240B sold: Foreign central banks dumped roughly $240 billion in US Treasuries over the past 30 days after a Gulf nation demanded dollar liquidity...

• Dollar index hits 99.39, highest since April 7, as Iran conflict doubts grow
• Fed rate hike prospects strengthen after hawkish FOMC comments; core...

• Oil rebounds to ~$100/bbl as US-Iran clashes extend into month three, ending hopes for quick peace
• April PCE forecast at 3.8% with May nowcasts...

Stanford analysis of ADP payroll data shows junior software developers under 25 lost 20% of positions while seniors gained 12%. McKinsey raised its...

Treasury yields edged lower Thursday as ceasefire hopes with Iran drove oil prices down, with the 10-year note falling almost 3 basis points to 4.453%...

Conflicting Fed signals—Dallas trimmed mean inflation cooling to 2.3% while core PCE hits 3.3%—are distorting the picture due to widespread tariff effects and prompting businesses to delay hiring and investment amid persistently high borrowing costs.

Al Jazeera's analysis examines the economic implications of evolving Iran-US negotiations specifically on oil price trends.

S&P 500 hits fresh all-time highs on a rare nine-week win streak, yet other assets signal fading momentum.

• Dollar rebounds toward April peaks as...

• Margin debt surged above $1.1 trillion, a level that has preceded every major correction in the modern era.
• Japan's bond-market breakdown is...

Rising yields are dismantling Treasuries' traditional hedge role, with the 10-year at 4.6% and 30-year above 5.2% amid persistent inflation. This is...