AI Infrastructure Capex Bubble and Circular Financing Risks

Massive AI infrastructure spending ($750B OpenAI, $250B Nvidia guarantee, $1.65T off-balance-sheet debt) raises circular financing and depreciation risks. CoreWeave's $99B backlog vs $50B debt, Nvidia's vendor financing echoing Lucent, and hedge fund blowups (400% leverage) signal fragility. Bond market repricing ignoring completion risk. Energy constraints killing $64B in projects. Nuclear startups attract funding but timelines uncertain. Samsung EVP confirms RAM shortage through 2027-2028, reinforcing memory as binding constraint alongside compute.