2026/2028 Political prediction market trends
Key Questions
What volumes and outcomes are projected for the 2026 midterms on prediction markets?
Midterm election volume reached $197M with a 46% chance of a Democratic sweep. Kalshi's new Midterms Hub aggregates live odds, polling, and analysis, though 75% of visitors do not trade.
Who is leading the 2028 presidential prediction markets?
Marco Rubio leads 2028 odds with $36.3M in volume. New contracts include Trump impeachment at 56% before 2028 and Kalshi's CA governor primary showing Becerra's odds cratering.
How have CLARITY Act odds changed recently?
Odds jumped to 72% for a floor vote and 47% for passage after text dropped but fell to 30-39% after Sen. Thune said no vote before recess. Tom Lee suggests underestimation due to insider trading limits.
What legal challenges are election betting markets facing?
Wisconsin warns betting could disqualify voters, which Kalshi calls voter suppression. Megadonors have put $1.6B into 2026 midterms amid fresh scrutiny.
What do Kalshi's gubernatorial markets show for 2026?
Democrats lead 26-23 with one toss-up; key races include Arizona at 81% Democratic and Georgia/Nevada favoring Republicans at 60% and 57%.
How are former regulators viewing prediction markets in elections?
Former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz advocates for election markets, emphasizing their role in providing real-time forecasts ahead of the midterms.
What impact have Trump mentions had on Polymarket activity?
Trump's weekly mentions correlate with price spikes and volume surges tied to events like the Iran pause and midterm developments.
What does Goldman Sachs predict for midterm volatility?
Goldman Sachs sees rising volatility linked more to macro factors than election outcomes, despite high prediction market engagement.
Midterm volume $197M, Dem sweep 46%. 2028 Rubio leading but Ossoff surging in Kalshi 2028 Dem nomination odds from 5% to 16% while Newsom drops from 35% to 18%, tied to real-world indicators like Google searches and fundraising. Kalshi Midterms Hub launched. CLARITY Act odds 30-39%. New voter survey: 75% of likely midterm voters think prediction markets create confusion; 38% would lose confidence if official results differ from market odds. Sports betting companies spent $72M on midterms via PAC. Election betting faces legal scrutiny; Wisconsin warns voters could be disqualified; Kalshi attacks Wisconsin law as voter suppression. Comprehensive Senate odds board now available. A comprehensive midterm prediction market guide is now available. A Tufts political scientist critiques prediction markets as downstream from polls, not replacements, with bettors overreacting to news. New: Maine elections draw $42M in prediction market volume, highlighting localized political betting. Wisconsin governor race GOP odds hit 50% on Kalshi/PredictIt after Democratic primary implosion (three exits, scandal, socialist frontrunner) – a clean case study of prediction markets absorbing structural political damage. New: Georgia Senate 2026 odds show Kalshi at 91¢ for Ossoff vs model panel 73%, highlighting market confidence and divergence.