Macro & Political Market Trends

Kalshi S&P 8000 odds at 66% after AI trade reset. FOMC divergence (Kalshi 49% vs Polymarket 53%). Midterm volume $197M, 2028 Dem odds, Georgia Senate market confidence. Iran-Oman Hormuz management agreement odds surge to 84% by Aug 15, $39k volume. ADP report shows Kalshi front-running Fed pivot.