"Magamyman" suspicious-profit cluster & insider risks
Key Questions
What suspicious activity occurred with Polymarket traders on Iran ceasefire?
Three traders profited $484k on April 7 by betting on a US-Iran ceasefire when odds were 2.9-10%, hours before Trump's announcement. Ceasefire odds later tanked to 1.1%.
Who is 'Magamyman' in prediction markets?
Magamyman is a trader who netted $500-553k in suspicious profits, drawing CFTC and SDNY surveillance amid insider risk concerns.
Why did Polymarket pull bets on downed US pilots?
Polymarket apologized and removed bets on the fate of downed F-15E pilots after backlash from lawmakers like Rep. Moulton, who called them 'disgusting death markets.' 223 war bets persist.
What do prediction markets show for Iran ceasefire odds?
Odds slipped from 12% to 71% on Kalshi for Jan 2027 and 7% to 31% by May 15 on Polymarket, with $430k volume on April 7. Analysts cite potential May end.
What volumes are seen in Trump-related war markets?
Polymarket Trump wars exceed $220M volume, oil/Hormuz over $200M, with US forces at 86% odds ($4M) and Trump 25th Amendment at 35% on Kalshi.
What backlash did Polymarket face over pilot bets?
Rep. Seth Moulton and Rep. Greene criticized Polymarket for allowing wagers on US service members' fates in Iran, alongside a Moulton-led letter for CFTC crackdown.
How has CFTC surveillance responded to insider risks?
CFTC/SDNY are monitoring clusters like Magamyman and timely Iran bets amid high war volumes and political pressure.
What are current odds for US military actions in Iran?
US combat search and rescue entered Iran, boosting presence odds to 86%; markets push back ceasefire timelines.
PM apologizes/pulls bets on downed US F-15E pilots amid Moulton-led 7 Dems letter/Greene/Coplan backlash (223 war bets persist); 3 PM traders nab $484k on Iran ceasefire Apr7 (bets at 2.9-10% hours pre-Trump post); Iran ceasefire odds tank to 1.1% Apr7 ($430k vol)/slipping further (CBA May end call, Kalshi 12%→71% Jan'27/PM 7%/31% May15 -10pts); US forces 86% $4M/Kalshi Trump 25th 35%; PM Trump wars $220M+ vols; $200M+ vols Hormuz/oil; Sygnum macro radar; Magamyman $500-553k; CFTC/SDNY surveillance.