**March 17 Fed meeting, Powell/Waller presser, DOJ succession risks & jobs** [developing]
Key Questions
What was the outcome of the March 17 Fed meeting?
The Fed held rates at 3.5–3.75% with hawkish dot plots indicating one cut in September 2026. Powell downplayed tariff inflation as a one-time shock, sparking a Treasury rally of -10bps.
How did Powell address rate hike risks?
Powell soothed hike odds to 5%, emphasizing tariffs' limited pass-through. Despite firm oil and jobs data holding cut odds at 76%, his comments eased immediate tightening fears.
What recent data influenced yields post-Fed?
March jobs added +178k with unemployment at 4.3%, nudging yields higher. Fed minutes are due Wednesday amid Waller and Goolsbee's hawkish tones.
Fed held 3.5–3.75%; hawkish dots (one 2026 cut Sep); Powell soothes hike odds to 5% (Harvard downplays tariffs as one-time shock, sparks Treas rally -10bps) but oil/jobs firm (hold 76%). Waller/Goolsbee hawkish; Warsh nominee, DOJ ongoing; March jobs +178k/unemp 4.3% nudge yields; Fed mins Wed.