Republican Congressional Fractures and Midterm Dynamics

Senate passed short-term CR through Dec. 11 (90-6). House passed $95B reconciliation package. Farm Bill stalled over SNAP cost-shift. Renewable energy PAC defeated Trump-endorsed incumbents Ogles and Roy. Trump's vaccine order gives Democrats a midterm attack line. Cost of living remains dominant. New Senate bill (Heinrich) would send $1,200 tariff rebate plus $600 per child. Trump's $2,000 checks stall. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt to leave. Congress headed for massive turnover: at least 83 incumbents not returning. New developments: South Carolina Senate runoff between Graham and Norman with Trump rallying; California midterm elections could shape national conflicts via gerrymandering and Prop 40 wealth tax; YouGov tracker shows Republican optimism peaked in May 2025 and is now declining, cost of living dominates as worst-rated issue, border security only major improvement.