Power shifts: succession doubts, IRGC consolidation, and elite fragmentation
Key Questions
How long did Iran's recent internet blackout last?
The blackout lasted nearly three months before internet was restored, though it remains heavily filtered. The ICT Minister admitted daily losses of $48 million from the shutdowns.
What is the Internet Pro scheme and who does it exclude?
It is a limited access program that excludes women, students, and the poor. Tehran governor denied any shutdown during Khamenei's funeral despite the restrictions.
What future technology offers hope for bypassing Iran's censorship?
Direct-to-cell satellite technology is noted as a potential future option, though currently limited. Pervasive filtering continues to intensify during protests according to technical reports.
Uncertainty over Khamenei’s status, Mojtaba Khamenei’s public absence, IRGC consolidation, and disputes over Mojtaba’s authority continue to fuel speculation about elite competition. Reports of armed confrontations or detention of officials opposing a possible U.S. deal remain unconfirmed.