US Macro Policy Digest

• Gold rose 30 days after 9 of 15 Fed rate hikes from 2018-2026, with averages at +0.68% despite textbook expectations.
• Two identical 75bp hikes in...

Strong US labor and services data plus plunging oil inventories are lifting market odds of Fed rate hikes, with December 2026 hike probability at...

Key macro releases this week will directly influence rate expectations and bond markets.

• US May inflation data arrives Wednesday, offering fresh...

Rising real yields, now at 2.05% on 10-year TIPS, reflect a structural repricing beyond inflation fears, amplified by Gulf crisis uncertainty that...

Rick Santelli warns that Wall Street's soft-landing complacency is misplaced, with real wages falling and a second inflation surge possible. Average consumers face high prices and savings at an 18-year low in this split-screen economy.

Cleveland Fed's Hammack says inflation is too high and moving higher with broad-based pressures across goods and services. She flags growing risks of...

Hedge funds have become key Treasury buyers as traditional investors lag issuance growth.

• Holdings surged from $600B in 2014 to $2.4T by...

• Independence threats at highest levels since 1951 Fed-Treasury accord, driven by sustained presidential criticism.
• Legal protections exist but...

US employers added 172,000 jobs in May, the third straight month of gains, with March and April revised higher and a three-month average of...

KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk argues the Federal Reserve must deal with this inflation, weighing in on the jobs report's market impact and potential rate hike effects.

Private employers added 122,000 jobs in May, topping economist forecasts and marking the third straight month of solid gains. The broadening...

• Data beats persist: Economic surprises at YTD highs, longest streak since 2008-09
• Inflation jump: April CPI hit 3.8% YoY, fueled by 17.9% energy...

The Fed's balance sheet influences longer-term interest rates beyond the fed funds target, primarily through Treasury securities and mortgage-backed...

Liz Ann Sonders and Kev R Gordon released their midyear US stock market outlook via Schwab. The piece offers a key reference point for market professionals tracking the second-half trajectory.

Scott Bessent and the new Fed chair are coordinating their work as the central bank remains the dominant force in Treasuries with a $6.7trn balance...

Kevin Warsh becomes Fed chair as the S&P 500 rises 7.5% this year on record profit margins of 14.7%.

• No rate cuts likely this year due to...

The June 2026 Beige Book shows U.S. prices rising at a moderate to strong pace, fueled by Middle East conflict energy costs that exceed prior...

Trump dismantled the Federal Reserve's independence between April 2025 and May 2026 by attempting to fire Governor Lisa Cook, leveraging a $2.5...

May's 172,000-job gain, well above forecasts, raises odds of a June Fed hike and will likely keep mortgage rates elevated. While stronger hiring supports buyer confidence, it delays the rate relief many await.

Market positioning shows limited improvement despite Friday's 2.6% S&P 500 drop.

• Implied correlation rose only to 12.2, remaining historically low...