US Macro Policy Digest

Labor Market Data and Market Response

• 🔥 June Jobs Report: June payrolls rose +57K versus roughly 115K expected, with April and May revised...

• Technical changes to PCE calculation in portfolio management, software, and legal services will cut core readings by ~0.2pp in Sept. 30 revisions,...

June payrolls surprised to the downside at just +57K, well below the 113-115K expected, with prior months revised lower by 74K total. The three-month...

Services sector surveys delivered mixed employment signals in June despite broad expansion and cooling price pressures.

• S&P Global services index...

Fed Governor Christopher Waller argues risks have flipped toward high inflation as the labor market stabilizes, shifting policy considerations ahead...

The Inflation Shock Momentum Index improves 1-3 year PCE inflation forecasts by tracking expenditure-weighted shares of categories with three...

The Supreme Court's 5-4 ruling blocks President Trump's removal of Governor Lisa Cook, stressing that the Federal Reserve Act requires notice,...

New Fed Chair Warsh omitted forward-looking language from his first policy statement, favoring less public commitment to future moves.

• Waller...

Labor Market Data

• 🔥 June Hiring Slows Sharply: U.S. employers added only 57,000 jobs in June with downward revisions to prior months, while...

Two June data points align on a cooling US economy:

• Employers added just 57,000 jobs, with downward revisions to prior months and cuts in...

Even as the Supreme Court blocks at-will firings of Fed governors, President Trump's attempt to remove Lisa Cook still weakens central bank...

Federal Reserve Liquidity Operations

• 🔥 Next-Week Injection: The Federal Reserve is scheduled to inject $9.95 billion into markets next week,...

Kevin Warsh assumed the Federal Reserve chair role amid ongoing debates over central bank autonomy and reform.

• Critics argue the Fed has...

AI investment boom is driving near-term price pressures through supply chains and labor markets, challenging the baseline disinflation narrative.

-...

The Federal Reserve's upcoming $9.95 billion liquidity injection next week highlights continued accommodative conditions, with $191 billion added since QT ended in December—easing reserves without implying aggressive stimulus.

Labor Market Signals

• 🔥 June Jobs Report: U.S. job growth slowed sharply in June with 57,000 added, unemployment at 4.2%, labor force dropping...

Persistent inflation is shifting from a temporary shock to the new baseline, driven by demographics, energy transition, fiscal expansion, and...

Wage growth has led CPI peaks by 3-17 months in every post-1985 cycle, with the latest peak occurring 50 months ago. Real wage compression to -0.6%...

The June FOMC minutes, due July 9, will detail a unanimous rate hold alongside half the committee's dot-plot projections for a 2026 hike.

Wells Fargo...

Jobs Data Shifts Rate Path

• 🔥 Weak July NFP: Report showed 73,000 jobs added, well below forecasts, trimming Fed rate hike bets and lifting...