EV sales/price war/incentives shift
Key Questions
What is BNEF's forecast for global EV sales in 2026?
BNEF projects 23.3 million global EV sales in 2026, representing a 27% market share. The outlook shows China moderating, Europe remaining resilient, and the US slowing due to policy changes.
How are UK EV sales performing relative to targets?
UK EV sales reached 30% share in June with 38% year-over-year growth, though still below the 33% ZEV mandate target. Industry group SMMT is calling for mandate reforms as electrified vehicles now outsell petrol-only cars.
What new EV incentives is California offering?
California is launching a $3,500 instant rebate program funded by $135M in state funds plus automaker matching, available at point-of-sale for first-time buyers under a $50k cap. It excludes Tesla but includes Rivian and Lucid, with an additional CPUC-approved program offering up to $20,300 for rideshare drivers.
Why are China's EV deliveries declining?
China EV deliveries fell 7% year-over-year in June, marking the sixth straight monthly decline. Only BYD, Leapmotor, and Xiaomi remain profitable amid a price war in the budget segment.
How are used EV markets performing in Europe?
Europe's used EV market reached $68.4B in 2026 and is projected to grow to $161.4B by 2035. Used EV sales in the US rose 24.7% year-over-year, signaling broader adoption.
What drove EV sales growth in Australia and New Zealand?
Australia hit 23.3% EV share in June with BYD nearly overtaking Toyota, while New Zealand reached 38.2% electrified share. Tesla Model Y was a top seller in both markets.
How are incentives influencing fleet EV adoption?
Incentives rather than technology are the main driver for electric fleet adoption, including utility-funded models and dealer support. California's rebates and state incentives for vehicles like the Slate Truck can reduce effective prices below $20k.
What is happening with Italy's EV market share?
Italy reached 20.7% EV share (BEV+PHEV) in June, driven by new incentives. This reflects broader European momentum where BEVs outsold gas cars for the first time in May.
BNEF forecasts 23.3M global EV sales in 2026 (27% share); China moderating, Europe resilient, US slowing. BNEF slashes US forecast to 17% by 2030 due to policy whiplash. Europe May 2026: BEVs 23.3% outsell gas cars 21.7% (oil price catalyst). UK June 2026: EV sales hit 30% (38% YoY growth) but still below 33% ZEV mandate target; SMMT calls for mandate reform. Italy June 2026: EV share 20.7% (BEV+PHEV), incentive-driven. US EV registrations rebounding (April down 9.8% YoY). Used EV sales up 24.7% YoY; Europe used EV market $68.4B in 2026, growing to $161.4B by 2035. China NEV penetration 62.9%. Luxury EVs shed 40-60% value. Hybrid market projected $465.4B by 2034. Proposed federal EV fee $130/year adds ownership cost concern. California launches $3,500 instant EV rebate – $135M state funds plus automaker matching; point-of-sale discount, $1,750 used, first-time buyers only, $50k cap, excludes Tesla but includes Rivian/Lucid. Program launches Q3 2026. Practical 'how to get one' guide now available. Also CPUC approved up to $20,300 incentives for rideshare drivers. Global May 2026 sales: BEVs +15% YoY, PHEVs -15% YoY; Chinese models dominate top 20. BYD retakes global EV sales crown – Q2 BEV 557k vs Tesla 480k; international markets 43% of BYD's total. GM Q2 EV sales down 41% (Equinox down 62%), plans PHEVs by 2027; Ford H1 EV sales fall 57%; Lucid delivery miss; Russian fuel crisis drives 125% YoY PHEV surge. PHEV market projected $220.4B by 2035 at 15.5% CAGR. CPUC approves up to $20,300 incentives for rideshare drivers to adopt ZEVs – addresses Uber charging barrier; program launches Q3 2026. Rivian raises forecast signals demand resilience despite US headwinds. Optimized charging could reduce costs – Alliance for Automotive Innovation highlights 25:1 EV-to-charger ratio; vehicle-grid integration as cost-reduction lever. California EV incentive design flaw: single income cap ignores regional cost differences (Santa Clara vs Fresno AMI gap). BNEF 2026 outlook: 23.3M units, 27% share, regional divergence. Australia EV surge: 23.3% share in June, BYD nearly overtakes Toyota (18,881 vs 19,124), Tesla Model Y top seller. Canada GHG standard may only deliver 62-68% EV share by 2035 vs 75% target. Thailand developing direct EV subsidies and trade-in scheme. Slate Truck could cost under $20,000 with state incentives – $24,950 MSRP, direct-sale model, state incentives (CA up to $12k) could bring effective price below $20k. Honda Super-N at £18,995 adds to affordable EV options, though 128-mile range limits appeal. Tesla quadruples German sales in Q2 – strong European recovery signal. Toyota bZ efficiency test shows 5.6 mi/kWh, reducing ownership costs. Chevy Bolt vs Nissan LEAF comparison highlights two affordable options under $30k. GAC Aion UT at $23K adds pressure in budget segment. Australia EV market share racing ahead but official data infrastructure lags – call to reinstate ABS-led vehicle statistics for grid planning. GM's Q2 EV sales down 41% (Equinox down 62%) – stark data point in US slowdown narrative. New Zealand hits 38.2% electrified share in June, Tesla Model Y outsells Ford Ranger – strong adoption signal in smaller market. Incentives, Not Technology, Are Driving Electric Fleet Adoption – utility-as-funder model; dealer-as-advisor insight; aligns with California rebates and Slate Truck incentives. New Delhi $1,000 scrappage incentive for EVs – health-driven policy, emerging market signal. Dacia Spring becomes UK's cheapest car at £11,990 – 140-mile range, 29-min fast charging; undercuts Leapmotor T03. Price war in budget EV segment intensifies. China EV deliveries down 7% YoY in June – sixth consecutive monthly decline; only BYD, Leapmotor, Xiaomi profitable. UK electrified vehicles (BEV+PHEV) overtake petrol-only sales – tipping point; Chinese brands 14% share. UK EV share hits 30% in 'mainstream moment' – SMMT calls for mandate reform; still below 33% target.