EV sales/price war/incentives shift
Key Questions
Why did BNEF lower its US EV sales forecast?
BNEF cut the 2030 projection from 48% to 17% market share due to slower adoption and policy shifts. US Q2 2026 sales fell 20.5% YoY despite a QoQ rebound.
How is California's new EV rebate program structured?
The $135M program offers $3,500 for new EVs and $1,750 for used under a $50k cap. It exempts California-based ZEV-only makers, benefiting Rivian and Lucid.
What drove the recent US EV sales rebound?
High gas prices from the Iran conflict boosted Q2 sales to 247k units, up 14.7% QoQ. Hybrids also surged with EV share at 5.8%.
Which brands are gaining US EV market share?
Tesla holds over 50% share, while Toyota bZ, Subaru, Kia, and Rivian show strong growth. Ford, Chevy, Mercedes, and Nissan saw EV pullbacks.
How are global EV sales trending in 2026?
June sales reached 2M units with Europe up 31% YoY, though US and China declined. Full-year projections hit 23M units for 27% global share.
What impact have EU tariffs had on EV production?
Tariffs prompted Western automakers to shift more production to Europe, dropping China-made share. This supports local manufacturing growth.
How is the used EV market performing in the US?
Used EVs have settled around $25k after federal tax credit expiry. Australia saw used EV sales up 54% with strong finance growth.
What long-term EV sales projections exist despite short-term dips?
Frost & Sullivan forecasts 32.6M BEV sales by 2031, confirming sustained growth. Global sales defy headwinds in Europe-led expansion.
BNEF slashes US EV sales forecast from 48% to 17% by 2030. US Q2 2026 sales 247k, up 14.7% QoQ but down 20.5% YoY, driven by high gas prices from Iran conflict. Tesla 50%+ share, Toyota, Subaru, Kia, Rivian growing. Ford, Chevy, Mercedes, Nissan pulled EVs. Used EVs settling at $25k post-tax credit. California $135M rebate program active with $3,500 new/$1,750 used, $50k cap, exempts CA-based ZEV-only automakers. Top 10 best-selling EVs in US H1 2026: Tesla 50% share, Toyota bZ +90%, Lexus RZ +107%. Global EV sales 2M in June: Europe surging 31% YoY, US and China decline. Hybrid surge: US EV market share 5.8%. EU tariffs shifting production to Europe, with China-made share dropping. Mercedes BEV sales up 51% globally. GM Q2 EV sales drop 32.6%. Toyota 225% YoY surge. Australia EV sales hit 50k in June 2026, used market up 54%, 35.8% EV+PHEV share, Chinese brands 58% of EV market, 161% spike in EV finance. BMW US EV sales drop 41% in Q2 2026. Global EV sales projected 23M in 2026 with 27% share. Frost & Sullivan projects 32.6M BEV sales by 2031, confirming long-term growth trajectory.