MENA Energy Security Watch

Oil Price Surge

• 🔥 Oil tops $90: Oil prices jumped above $90 per barrel Sunday amid escalated Middle East hostilities and reduced tanker traffic...

• Crude prices jumped above $90 per barrel for the first time since mid-June, directly lifting retail gasoline to a national average of $4.003 per...

A London-based proposal for a coalition managing the Strait of Hormuz, modeled on the 1951 European Coal and Steel Community, has triggered mixed...

The 3-2-1 crack spread has surged to a record ~$70 per barrel as US refining capacity fell 1% to 18.2 million bpd amid robust demand and inventories...

Gulf crude and condensate exports surged 16% in early July to 12 mmbbl/d, their highest since the Iran war started, after a brief US-Iran agreement...

Long-Term Energy Security Shifts

• 🔥 Gulf Energy Security Permanently Altered: CrudeCast assesses irreversible effects from the Iran war on how...

Recent US strikes after Jordan casualties coincide with Iran hitting Gulf infrastructure, exposing the collapse of long-held security foundations.

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• US claim: Energy Secretary Wright reports ~14M bpd from Gulf, with 7M via Strait and bypass pipelines
• IEA stance: Birol urges quick restoration,...

Pipeline Route Developments

• 🔥 Kirkuk-Baniyas Pipeline Agreement: Iraq and Syria have signed an agreement to restore the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil...

US-Iran strikes have escalated to their highest intensity since April, halting Hormuz transits and driving oil prices to $87. Iran struck Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman while Houthis hit Saudi Arabia for the first time in four years.

US military expenses in the Iran conflict exceed $100 billion, far above official figures, with oil all-time-high odds ticking up to 6.3% by...

Iraq and Syria agreed to restore the Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline, targeting 2 million barrels per day capacity to avoid the Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran...

Gulf governments face direct hits on power and desalination plants yet deliberately avoid military payback. Their choice centers on protecting...

Chokepoint Threats

• 🔥 Dual Closure Risks: ORF analyst states dual closure of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb would trigger economic catastrophe.
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• US strikes targeting Iranian coastal missile and drone sites aim to secure the Strait of Hormuz but deepen the escalation trap with Tehran.
• Supply...

US Strikes and Iranian Retaliation

• 🔥 US Strikes Near Tehran: The US unleashed strikes near Tehran targeting Semnan province and fired on the...

Iran's warning that any attack on its facilities would trigger destruction of regional infrastructure—including energy assets and the Strait of...

No significant updates today.

• Military escalation: Iran struck US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain while attacking Kuwaiti border posts and a drilling rig, collapsing the June...

Analysts see the oil market pivoting from wartime risk premiums to core supply-demand fundamentals.

• WTI at $74.51 as Iran's exports recover...