U.S.-China technology rivalry unfolds amid wider geopolitical fragmentation

China is pushing semiconductor self-reliance, AI competition, industrial expansion, and model distillation while facing economic weaknesses; limited safety dialogue may coexist with strategic rivalry. Modi’s BRICS warning about geopolitical tensions and supply-chain shocks highlights efforts toward multipolar coordination on critical minerals, payments, and institutional reform, while shadow fleets, sanctions evasion, contested chokepoints, and diplomatic disputes continue to weaken global regulatory coherence.