USMCA Review & Sovereign Risk Escalation

USMCA talks have been delayed again without a tariff agreement, with Mexico maintaining red lines on rules of origin, energy, and dispute resolution. Potential auto tariffs, Stellantis' Ram HD production review, Toyota's Baja-to-Texas shift, Moody's Baa3 downgrade, fiscal-slippage concerns, security friction, and proposed national-security vetting keep trade and capital-cost risks elevated; a possible Mexico auto-tariff break remains unconfirmed.