USMCA/CUSMA Renewal & Nearshoring Momentum with Infrastructure and Investment
Key Questions
What was the outcome of the first USMCA review round?
The first USMCA review round ended without a tariff deal on steel and aluminum, adding to ongoing trade uncertainty. Subsequent rounds showed progress on other issues but left investors cautious.
How has industrial absorption performed in H1 2026?
Gross absorption of industrial space rose 14% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, though it remained below the 2024 peak. Construction starts have been throttled back amid the uncertainty.
What new foreign direct investments were announced in Mexico?
Recent FDI includes Saint-Gobain's $850M project, Clarios' $147M investment, a BAC plant, and Grupo Modelo's $760M brewery in Hidalgo. Near-border hubs attracted $4.2B in total.
What infrastructure challenges does Mexico face for nearshoring?
An IMCO report warns of an 11.9GW electricity capacity gap by 2030. World Cup infrastructure pushes are underway but must contend with grid and labor constraints.
How is Toyota's Texas plant affecting Mexican operations?
Toyota's $3.6B Texas plant is shifting Tacoma production from Baja, leading to rail revenue losses and CPKC disruptions. Investors are weighing these shifts against broader nearshoring momentum.
First USMCA review round ended without tariff deal on steel/aluminum, adding to uncertainty. Third round showed progress on other issues. Moody's downgrade to Baa3 and Slim's pushback. H1 2026 data: absorption up 14% YoY but below 2024 peak; construction starts throttled back. Near-border hubs attracted $4.2B. Toyota's $3.6B Texas plant shifting Tacoma production from Baja; rail revenue loss and CPKC whiplash. New FDI: Saint-Gobain $850M, Clarios $147M, BAC plant, and Grupo Modelo's $760M brewery in Hidalgo. IMCO grid expansion report warns of 11.9GW capacity gap by 2030. World Cup infrastructure push. Investors must weigh downside risks (tariffs, grid, labor) against strong data.