Hormuz, maritime disruption, and energy security crisis

Hormuz and Red Sea insecurity continue to threaten energy, fertilizer, and global trade flows. Reported traffic of about 10 vessels daily, $37.5 billion in trade costs, an $80 Brent forecast, and an 80% rise in urea prices point to growing exposure; Aramco’s reported stock draw and limited spare capacity underline fragile buffers. Energy shocks are also driving debates over windfall taxes, infrastructure, permitting, and distributional costs.