Great-power/ally rifts & sanctions erosion amid multipolarity
Key Questions
How is China countering sanctions on Iran?
China provides mil-tech, oil, and accelerates BRI; new energy push amid disruptions. Hormuz tolling favors China/Japan.
What role does Russia play?
Russia aids Iran and faces flooded energy requests as war escalates. Hegseth acknowledges potential support from China and Russia.
Why are NATO rifts deepening?
European NATO members block US bases and airspace for Iran war. This highlights multipolarity and no WW3 path.
What does Mearsheimer predict for the US quagmire?
Mearsheimer sees no quick end to US-Israel war on Iran. US faces desperate quagmire amid regime succession intact.
How does multipolarity manifest in Gulf hedging?
Gulf states hedge amid NATO rifts; polls oppose US actions. Sanctions erode with great-power support diluting effects.
Russia flooded w/energy requests/Serbia/Hungary/Turkey ties; China mil-tech/oil/Russia aid dilute sanctions/BRI/Xi new energy; Brookings 2009 blueprint mirrors events; multipolarity (Hormuz favors China/Japan, NATO blocks US); quagmire no quick win post-Khamenei succession.